Close proximity to transportation = desirable housing

A classic equation for property valuation in any real estate market. But how does this model stand in today’s changing world, with the rise of remote work and growing concerns about energy sustainability?

Toronto: The ‘worst transit infrastructure for its class and size’

Peter Jordon, a real estate broker with Century 21 based in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), shares what he’s currently noticing with clients:

“I’m definitely seeing more interest in properties with close proximity to public transit like the GO station, and that will always be the case, I think,” he says. “Who wouldn’t want access to good transit infrastructure?”

But not all transportation options are built equally.

“Toronto probably has the worst transit infrastructure, for its class and size, that I’ve seen,” continues Jordon. “It was built for a population of 500,000, and now we have over six million people in the GTA. It’s not a well-functioning system; it’s gridlocked. If you were to break the city into quadrants to get from one section to the other, it would take hours, maybe all day.”

A reason for unprecedented unaffordability: We weren’t ready for it

With Canada’s population expected to grow anywhere from about 25 to 40 per cent by 2046, a variety of transportation options will need to be readily available to service this influx. And with more people, naturally, comes more need for housing. 

Lee Haber, founder of Cambria Consulting, has spent much of his career on policy research and messaging when it comes to issues around transportation and urban planning.

“I think one of the reasons we’re experiencing an unprecedented lack of affordability is because we weren’t ready for it,” comments Haber. “We didn’t have the systems in place to allow for more housing and infrastructure to be built at the pace required.” 

350 km B.C. rail network could facilitate housing for 25% of region’s expected growth

Through his work with Mountain Valley Express, a non-profit group that aims to bring a regional rail network to southern British Columbia, Haber is hopeful that we can put better systems in place than the ones laid out by previous generations.

“The second best time to plant a tree is today,” he reflects. “The province (of British Columbia) is putting in place policies that will allow for much more housing and we can put in place mechanisms where we can accelerate transit expansion by leveraging the value of development around new stations using similar mechanisms as those employed in Asia.”

An analysis conducted by Haber’s team determined that if British Columbia’s Transit Oriented Areas (TOA) policy were applied to their proposed 350 km regional rail system, around 440,000 people could be housed near these stations —  addressing at least 25 per cent of the region’s expected growth.

“Regional rail has the opportunity to enable sustainable, compact development at a meaningful scale,” says Haber.

Public transit use highest in areas with balance between ‘moderately affordable housing and moderately good transit’

From a municipal transit perspective, after a decade of working for TransLink, Denis Agar is now tackling these issues as the executive director of Movement, a non-profit organization advocating for better transit in Metro Vancouver.

A 2022 study from the University of British Columbia explored the impact of rapid transit expansion on housing prices. It found that expanding rapid transit benefits households of all income levels, but the group that benefited the most was high-income earners.

“It’s no secret that housing is more expensive in places with better public transit access,” comments Agar. “When choosing a home, you have to decide whether to spend more on housing so you can save money by driving less, or vice versa. The average cost of even a used car in B.C. has surpassed $40,000, so more people than ever are trying to reduce their (vehicle) use.”

Agar has been keeping a close eye on the correlation between public transportation and real estate prices in the Metro Vancouver area.

“What we’re seeing is that ridership is growing fastest in the parts of the region that have frequent bus connections to SkyTrain. These are likely places where people are finding a balance between moderately affordable housing and moderately good transit. But these frequent buses like the 49 and 323 are overcrowded, unreliable and often leaving people behind.”

Bus-priority streets and rail lines connecting to majority of homes: ‘Governments assume voters don’t want it’

Is there a solution to this transportation conundrum? With the upcoming provincial election in October, Agar believes that the ball is in the government’s court.

”When governments provide funding to expand frequent, fast, reliable transit to more places, it increases transit-friendly options for home hunters. Imagine a future with an expansive network of bus-priority streets and rail lines connecting to a majority of homes in the region. The only reason this hasn’t been funded yet is because governments assume that the voters don’t want it. We need to tell them otherwise.”

The classic equation of “close proximity to transportation = desirable housing” still appears to hold strong, despite the challenges faced in today’s current market. It requires, however, an openness to new opportunities in order to find more viable long-term solutions. 

“If you open up transportation to new places, it opens up those places for population growth and housing development,” notes Jordon. Because no matter how you solve the equation, a more accessible world is also a more connected one.