Home sales in the GTA dropped in June compared to the same month last year. Despite the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cut at the beginning of June, many potential buyers remained hesitant to enter the market. This resulted in a high supply that created a slight dip in the average selling price compared to the prior year.
Source: TRREB
Fewer sales from a year ago but with over 12% more new listings
There were 6,213 home sales in June 2024, representing a 16.4 per cent decrease from the 7,429 sales recorded in June 2023. However, new listings increased by 12.3 per cent year-over-year, reaching 17,964.
Source: TRREB
The average selling price in June 2024 was $1,162,167, down 1.6 per cent from $1,181,002 in June 2023. The MLS Home Price Index Composite benchmark decreased by 4.6 per cent compared to the previous year.
First half of 2024 performed better than all of 2023
Annual sales were $1,126,279 last year. After six months into 2024, we’re currently at an average of $1,130,744 which is slightly better than all of 2023. Sales have been steadily increasing since their fall in December 2023 which helped us achieve a slightly higher sales average. The current 6,213 June sales compared to December 2023’s 3,420 demonstrates the changing economy.
Source: TRREB
While the recent rate cut provided some relief, most homebuyers are likely waiting for multiple rate reductions before re-entering the market. This proves that the current well-supplied market has given recent home buyers more choice and negotiating power on prices. As sales increase alongside lower borrowing costs, the elevated inventory levels will help prevent a rapid increase in selling prices.
As the market adjusts to changing economic conditions, any first-time buyers and sellers in the GTA will be closely watching for further interest rate cuts and their impact on housing affordability and the ever-changing consumer market.
Daniel Foch and Nick Hill are co-hosts of The Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast. Daniel Foch, a real estate broker and analyst, is frequently featured in major media and has advised on over $1BN in real estate transactions, focusing on affordable housing. Nick Hill, a real estate investor and mortgage agent, has a background in business, commercial real estate and startups, working with investors and developers across Canada.
I think it will take more than a small rate cut to excite the market.
Interest cuts will help but will need to cut at least one percent . The greater issue is the Stress Test that’s needs to go as First Time Buyers are Not qualifying.
Based on the present housing stats will there be a significant decline in house prices? Can one explain how the average home buyer entering the real estate market at this time can possibly afford to buy an average priced home in Toronto based on a price of approximately $1,300,000? How much will house prices decline in Toronto from today’s average to make sense?
And the increase in sales now being experienced in July (vs July 2023)?
That would be good for Realtors. With over 70,000 Realtor members TREB and only sales 6200 sales in June 2024 I would suggest most Realtors must be praying for a change. Is this over population of Realtors good for the industry. Does it really take 70000 Realtors to service 6200 sales.